Gazprom, Russia's state-owned energy giant, likely won't recoup pre-war gas sales for a decade, research commissioned by the company said.
"The main consequences of sanctions for Gazprom and the energy industry are the contraction of export volumes, which will be restored to their 2020 level no earlier than in 2035," the study said, seen by the Financial Times.
By that year, gas exports to Europe will barely average a third of the volumes sold before 2022, when the war started Ukraine. Although Europe has long been the primary hub for Russia's gas, the war triggered a wave of retaliatory sanctions, upending trade with the West.
Gazprom was among the suppliers hit hardest by the measures. In early May, the firm disclosed a net loss of $6.9 billion in 2023, marking its first annual decline in over two decades.
Hope lies in the development of the Siberia-2 pipeline, a major proposal to connect Russia with China's market.
So far, the pipeline deal is stalled over disagreements about pricing and supply, but even if the project does come online, the added exports won't make up for lost European revenue, as Beijing has been buying Russian gas at a deep discount.