Forty-eight hours into the two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran maritime security remains at a critical level in the Arabian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, and Gulf of Oman, according to the Joint Maritime Information Center (JMIC).
Hopes that the ceasefire would reopen the Strait of Hormuz and allow close to a 1,000 ships with 20,000 seafarers stranded in the Gulf since 28 February to exit the region have failed to materialise.
The latest JMIC advisory for 1 March – 9 April said the threat level in the Arabian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz and the Gulf of Oman remained at critical over the next 24 – 48 hours.
“While no new kinetic shipping incidents have been reported since 7 April 2026, the overall threat level remains high due to the uncertainty associated with the cease fire agreement. Traffic near Iranian waters, anchorages, and predictable routes faces increased exposure to rapid hostile actions,” JMIC said.
Although one of the conditions of the two-week ceasefire was for Iran to fully open the Strait of Hormuz this has not happened. Iran has issued a warning that a large section of the waterway, which covers the traditional navigation channels is mined and restricted to all traffic.
Instead, Iran is requiring all vessels seeking to transit the Strait to seek approval from the Iranian Armed Forces and use a route close to Larak Island in the country’s waters. Iran is also seeking a toll of $1 per barrel oil carried, which is equal to $2 million for VLCC with a capacity to carry $2 million barrels of oil.
Since the ceasefire took effect the JMIC said there were 12 transits of the Strait on 7 April and six on 8 April, based on AIS tracking.
“The 8 Apr 2026 US–Iran two-week conditional ceasefire has not resulted in a meaningful increase in traffic. Iran has stated that transits require prior coordination with its armed forces. Iran has also issued alternative routing graphics that reflect a hazard area encompassing the traffic separation scheme,” JMIC said.
