The official narrative of the Republic of Azerbaijan is increasingly focusing on the proposition that Armenia is arming itself, preparing to attack Azerbaijan, and that therefore, Azerbaijan has the right to defend itself and take preventive measures.
To restate these propositions of Azerbaijani narrative in shorter and simpler terms, it all comes down to the following: Armenia is purportedly preparing to attack Azerbaijan, therefore it is better for Azerbaijan to attack Armenia as a preventive measure.
These narratives can have two potential origins: either Azerbaijan really thinks that Armenia intends to attack Azerbaijan, or Azerbaijan intends to attack Armenia and is trying to create a foundation for doing so. In both cases, the basic premise is Azerbaijan’s claim about Armenia’s intention to attack Azerbaijan.
Is Armenia preparing to attack Azerbaijan?
Any impartial observer can testify to the fact that the Government of the Republic of Armenia has left no room for ambiguous interpretation in this matter. I have stated on multiple occasions, and now I consider it necessary to clarify, that the Republic of Armenia is committed to the strategic agreement reached in Prague on October 6, 2022, whereby Armenia and Azerbaijan recognize each other’s territorial integrity and sovereignty on the basis of the Alma-Ata Declaration.
That is, the Republic of Armenia recognizes the territorial integrity and sovereignty of the Republic of Azerbaijan over the territory of the Azerbaijan SSR, and the Republic of Azerbaijan recognizes the territorial integrity and sovereignty of the Republic of Armenia over the territory of the Armenian SSR.
This notion has already gained de-jure force in the two countries, as the Alma-Ata Declaration was affirmed as the basic principle of the demarcation process between the two countries in the Regulation on the Joint Activities of the Commission on Demarcation of the State Border and Border Security between the Republic of Armenia and the Republic of Azerbaijan and the State Commission on Demarcation of the State Border between the Republic of Azerbaijan and the Republic of Armenia, which has been ratified in both states.
It is also in light of this fact that I have stated several times that the Republic of Armenia is not setting the objective of using military means to return even the more than 200 square kilometers of territories, an integral part of the 29,743 square kilometers of internationally-recognized sovereign territory of the Republic of Armenia, which are currently under Azerbaijani occupation, because the above-mentioned Regulation has already in principle resolved that issue, and there is a real and substantive possibility to resolve it in practice in the demarcation process.
In this context, I consider it necessary to emphasize that on the occasion of the 33rd anniversary of the Armenian Army, I declared that the army should not be engaged outside the internationally-recognized sovereign territory of the Republic of Armenia (this, of course, does not relate to the participation of Armenian peacekeeping units in international peacekeeping forces).
Therefore, the claims about Armenia’s intention to attack Azerbaijan are simply made-up.
Is the Republic of Armenia arming?
The Republic of Armenia is reforming its army within the framework of the above-mentioned principle, that is, to protect its territorial integrity and sovereignty recognized internationally, including by Azerbaijan. This, by the way, is an internationally-recognized right of any country, and challenging it is a gross violation of international law.
Do the reforms of the Armenian army have anything to do with Azerbaijan? Both yes and no.
No, because as I explained above, Armenia has no plan, intention, or goal for any military action against Azerbaijan.
Yes, because threats to the security of the Republic of Armenia are generated precisely in Azerbaijan. Firstly, in spite of the Prague Agreement, statements are made by the highest levels of Azerbaijan questioning the territorial integrity of the Republic of Armenia.
These statements are most fully formulated in the so-called “Western Azerbaijan” narrative, which is sponsored by the top leadership of Azerbaijan, and in the founding documents of an organization bearing the same name, about 60 percent of the sovereign territory of the Republic of Armenia is referred to as “territories presently under the control of the Republic of Armenia” or “territory presently under the control of the political and legal unit called the Republic of Armenia.”
Now, let us see this in combination with the staged trial taking place in Baku, Azerbaijan’s billion-dollars procurement of weapons, and official Baku’s aggressive rhetoric, only to make it clear that real threats are being generated in Azerbaijan against the security of the Republic of Armenia.
Solutions
The solutions to this situation are on the table; they were generated as a result of the joint work of the representatives of Armenia and Azerbaijan. Firstly, the already agreed articles of the peace agreement have fundamentally resolved the issue of not only not having territorial claims against each other, but also not making such claims in the future. The signing of the peace agreement will forever close the door for both Armenia and Azerbaijan to ever make territorial claims against each other, a door that was already closed in Prague. The agreed part of the peace agreement is sufficiently weighty and mature for signing, although the Republic of Armenia has proposed comprehensive solutions for the two non-agreed articles and is awaiting Azerbaijan’s positive response.
Moreover, the Republic of Armenia has submitted a written proposal to Azerbaijan on the establishment of mechanisms for reciprocal arms control and joint investigation of border incidents, and is awaiting Azerbaijan’s positive response.
Furthermore, the Republic of Armenia has submitted a written proposal to Azerbaijan on performing railway transportation from Azerbaijan to Azerbaijan and internationally through the territory of Armenia, and from Armenia to Armenia and internationally through the territory of Azerbaijan, and is awaiting Azerbaijan’s positive response.
The Commission on Demarcation of the State Border and Border Security between the Republic of Armenia and the Republic of Azerbaijan and the State Commission on Demarcation of the State Border between the Republic of Azerbaijan and the Republic of Armenia are operating normally and constructively.
A meeting was recently held between the Republic of Armenia Interagency Commission for Prisoners of War, Hostages, and Missing Persons and the Republic of Azerbaijan State Commission for Prisoners of War, Hostages and Missing Citizens.
All of this means that there are no prerequisites for escalation in the region and, moreover, all the prerequisites for peace have been put in place. It is necessary to abandon staged actions and a policy of staging escalations, and to establish institutional peace. Armenia not only is ready for this, but will not divert from this path.
Nikol Pashinyan
Prime Minister of the Republic of Armenia
