The U.S. military vowed to blockade all Iranian ports starting Monday, part of efforts to force Tehran into agreeing to open the crucial Strait of Hormuz and accepting a peace deal. Iran responded with threats on all ports in the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, taking aim at U.S.-allied countries,
AP reports.
That set the stage for an extraordinary showdown that contains serious risks for the global economy and raises the specter that a ceasefire that is currently holding could collapse and the war could resume. Talks aimed at permanently ending the conflict — which began Feb. 28 with U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran — finished without an agreement this weekend, and there has been no word on whether negotiations will resume.
Iran’s effective closure of the strait, through which 20% of traded oil passes in peacetime, has sent oil prices skyrocketing, pushing up the cost of gasoline, food and other basic goods far beyond the Middle East. Tehran has allowed some ships perceived as friendly to pass while charging considerable fees, leading to accusations it is holding the global economy hostage.
Some analysts are doubtful that the U.S. can restore normal shipping through force alone — and it’s not clear how a blockade would work or what the dangers might be to U.S. forces. The question is essentially who can endure the most pain: Could a blockade make Iran’s economic situation untenable and force it to concede? Or will it drive global oil and other prices so high that U.S. President Donald Trump is forced to back down?
The U.S. military’s Central Command announced that from 10 a.m. EDT (1400 GMT) the blockade would be enforced “against vessels of all nations entering or departing Iranian ports and coastal areas.” It said that would include all of Iran’s ports on the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman.
CENTCOM said it would still allow ships traveling between non-Iranian ports to transit the Strait of Hormuz, a step down from Trump’s earlier threat to blockade the vital waterway.
Iran responded with threats of its own.
“Security in the Persian Gulf and the Sea of Oman is either for everyone or for NO ONE,” the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting reported Monday. “NO PORT in the region will be safe,” read a statement from the Iranian military and the Revolutionary Guard.
The threats halted the limited ship traffic that resumed in the strait since the ceasefire, according to a report from Lloyd’s List Intelligence. Marine trackers say over 40 commercial ships have crossed since the start of the ceasefire last week, down from roughly 100 to 135 vessel passages per day before the war.
