The former US Co-Chair of the OSCE Minsk Group James Warlick said in an interview with "Voice of America" that after the Velvet Revolution in Armenia in 2018, Azerbaijan had hopes for a settlement, but was followed by disappointment.
Political scientist Narek Minasyan, in response to 1lurer.am's question, referred to Warlick's statements. "First of all Warlick notes in his statement that after the Velvet non-violent revolution in Armenia, there was an optimism that the position of the Armenian side could change. The Azerbaijani side had certain expectations. It seems that such a perception had existed, including in some international circles, but I think such a way of thinking can be only when Armenia and the perceptions of the Karabakh issue in Armenia are not well known.
After the revolution the Armenian authorities not only did not soften their position or make any unilateral concessions, but, on the contrary, using their high legitimacy, strengthened their position. I think this is quite a subtle nuance, which, unfortunately, the same Warlick ignores, he does not have a good idea of the Armenian reality", the expert said.
The former US co-chair had also said that the authorities and people of the two countries do not show enough political will to resolve the issue.
"I think in this case at least it is not fair to make such an observation and put the Armenian authorities, the Azerbaijani authorities, especially their positions, on the same plate. It is not a secret that the Azerbaijani side is always in a more ambitious position, trying to get everything. As for the Armenian side - the Armenian side is consistently advancing the vision based on the principle of compromise settlement, and that principle has been given a certain formula by the new authorities.
In particular, that any settlement must be acceptable to the peoples of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Artsakh. The call has been made several times, but the Azerbaijani side has not given any response, thus not expressing its agreement on a compromise settlement. Warlick himself did not seem to take this feature into account", said Minasyan.
In the interview with the Voice of America, Warlick also stated that when he was still co-chair, they were negotiating with the presidents of the two countries, who, in fact, were trying to reach a settlement and there was public support for a solution without specifying what settlement should be. It is not a secret that various sources and officials have stated that they were close to signing the agreement several times, but in Kazan, for example, Ilham Aliyev put forward new points, as a result of which the signing process failed, Minasyan said.
According to him, it is obvious, that the current government of Armenia starts the negotiation process from a new point and content.
"In particular the Armenian side tried to reposition itself at the negotiating table. For example, was clearly stated the need to return Artsakh to the negotiating table. It was clearly argued that the current Armenian government does not have a legitimate mandate to represent the people of Artsakh.
This was a strong record, and the Armenian authorities are still consistently advancing this line. And it seems that this brought a new color to the negotiating table. At the same time, the Armenian side, noting its red lines, is in no hurry to clarify what compromises it is ready to make, stating that Armenia has been talking about compromises for years, but the same Azerbaijani side has not made any such statement.
Azerbaijan is not only silent on what compromises it is ready for, but it has not made any statements about the logic of a compromise settlement. Especially the July events hit the negotiation process once again and as the Armenian side has been insisting for the last two years, in order to have effective negotiations, first of all we need a favorable environment for that process, which we do not have today. It is impossible to expect substantive, effective negotiations until we have such an environment", Minasyan said.
According to him, in his interview Warlick tried to speak as a former co-chair, using the vocabulary typical of the co-chairs, who try to avoid pointing out which side is violating the ceasefire.
"It is safe to say that the Co-Chairs are well aware of which side has violated the ceasefire. Because the Armenian side regularly presents to the Co-Chairs factual evidence - recordings and videos, made in different parts of the border. Given that there is similar technical equipment along the entire border at the moment, it is easy for the Armenian side to present such evidence.
At the same time the co-chairing countries - Russia, France and the United States, have sufficient technical capabilities, including space. I think it is not a problem for them at all, if they want, can objectively find out which side started violating the ceasefire", said the political scientist Narek Minasyan.
