With one touch of his hand, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan began construction of the Istanbul Canal in the northwestern suburbs of Istanbul. The $15 billion canal will connect the Black Sea and Marmara Sea as an alternative to the Bosporus. Ankara has its own explanation for the need to build a canal. The official version is “Bosporus overload should be eased.”
“Today we open a new page in the history of Turkish development. Since we could not close the Strait to sea traffic, we came up with the idea of building a new canal to meet the increasing demand for traffic. We see the Istanbul Canal as a project to save the future of Istanbul, says President of Turkey Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
Environmental organizations have a diametrically opposed view of the possible impact of the canal on the future of Istanbul. They warn that the construction of the Istanbul Canal will lead to the loss of quality of drinking water sources. In addition, they believe that possible changes in the level of salinity in the Marmara Sea are dangerous.
The Turkish side expects that the new canal will increase the volume of cargo transportation and provide additional financial flows.
There are many political opponents of the project, too. Turkish politicians and the military warn that the new canal could pose geopolitical risks to Turkey if Erdogan tries to circumvent the Montreux Convention on the Status of the Bosporus and Dardanelles.
The convention adopted in 1936 defines the rules for the use of the straits connecting the Mediterranean Sea to the Black Sea during peace and war. Moreover, the regulations are different for third countries and the Black Sea region.
Will the Istanbul Canal lead to a revision of the Montreux Convention? Opinions differ. The Turkish President has already stated that “the Istanbul Canal has nothing to do with the Montreux Convention,” and the Russian side warned that any attempt to revise the convention is unacceptable.
“Any attempt to revise the Montreux Convention will also affect Russia's interests. We view this Convention as a key factor in the stability and security of the SEA region, especially in relation to the navigation of warships,” says Maria Zakharova, official representative of the Russian Foreign Ministry.
According to Taron Simonyan, Candidate of Juridical Sciences, the Montreux Convention should be interpreted not in letters, but in substance.
As for Erdogan’s attempts to circumvent the Montreux Convention, Simonyan believes that other members of the Convention have the opportunity to challenge Turkey’s actions in an international court.
“Erdogan’s next idea, which has become the subject of criticism and conflict of interest, is expected to be completed within six years. Despite the fact that the project was launched with Eastern splendor, it is clear that in order for it to become a reality, the Turkish authorities will have to overcome the resistance of both internal and external forces,” says Simonyan.
