Armenia has yet to apply for EU candidacy, but it continued to make democratic gains in 2022, becoming the only country in Nations in Transit 2023 with improvements on more than one indicator,
Freedom House reports.
The NGO and independent media sectors made strides, particularly as their objections persuaded the government to backtrack on controversial 2021 legislation that had criminalized defamation. The potential for deterioration remains, however, as evidenced by arrests of opposition candidates before local elections last August. With its dependence on authoritarian Russia for military protection against Azerbaijan, its openly hostile and equally authoritarian neighbor, Armenia’s democratic project faces uniquely powerful headwinds.
The poor performance of Georgia’s government stands in contrast to the progress of its fellow Hybrid Regimes in Armenia, Moldova, and Ukraine. The country’s toxic political polarization—a problem that is listed as the first “key priority” in the EU’s opinion on its qualified candidate status—has seeped into every public institution. The media ecosystem is diverse only in the sense that it is thoroughly politicized and outlets are reliably biased in favor of the ruling party or the opposition. In early 2023, the government proposed a Russian-style “foreign agents” law, which would have forced local NGOs and media outlets that receive more than 20 percent of their funding from abroad to register as “agents of foreign influence.” The move triggered angry protests and police violence before the legislation was withdrawn.
Authoritarian Aggression in the Caucasus
The Russian invasion of Ukraine alerted the entire world to the existential threat that a hardening dictatorship can pose to neighboring states with democratic aspirations. But a similar scenario is unfolding in the Caucasus, and receiving far less attention.
In 2020, Azerbaijan’s military recaptured parts of Nagorno-Karabakh, a region of the country held by local ethnic Armenian forces since they defeated Azerbaijani troops in 1994. After its 2020 victory, the regime of President Ilham Aliyev in Azerbaijan continued to pursue its territorial ambitions by military means. It launched a major incursion into the Republic of Armenia in 2022, and in early 2023 it further isolated the ethnic Armenians who remained in Nagorno-Karabakh by blocking a crucial road link under the guise of “environmental protests.”
Moscow’s seizure of Ukrainian territory in 2014 and 2022 resulted in a dramatic loss of rights and physical safety for residents, and there are abundant indications that an expansion of Baku’s control over Nagorno-Karabakh and parts of Armenia would eliminate the freedoms and security of local people in much the same way.
Democratic governments must not ignore the danger. They should take every possible step to bolster Armenia’s democracy and ensure the protection of all those living under or fleeing Azerbaijani rule or occupation.
