The Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) has published an updated macroeconomic forecast for the Bank’s region of operations for 2021 and the medium term. EDB analysts in March predicted strong recovery growth in the member states of the Bank, but the reality of the first half of the year exceeds expectations.
In the context of strong support from the world economy, the forecast for the aggregate GDP growth of the EDB member states for 2021 has been increased by 0.7 p.p. to 4%. The revision is mainly due to the improvement in the estimate of Russia’s GDP growth for this year - from 3.3% to 4.1%.
The EDB's forecasts for GDP growth in Armenia were also raised to 4.2 in 2021. A more active economic recovery in Russia, a key trading partner of Armenia, gave a strong impetus to the country’s exports in the first half of the year.
EDB analysts predict a slowdown in inflation in the Bank’s member states from 6.6% y/y on average in the region in May to 5.6% by the end of 2021. This will be facilitated by easing inflationary demand pressures and rebuilding production chains. In Armenia, the EDB expects inflation of 5.4% at the end of the year.
