Russia is developing a legal framework to enlist Belarusian citizens into its armed forces, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
The ISW predicts that Russia may attempt to recruit Belarusians into its army through the legal framework of the Union State. According to the treaty establishing it, Russians and Belarusians share a single citizenship status and, in theory, equal rights.
The Kremlin may go a step further and argue that equal rights also mean equal obligations. In other words, military service would become mandatory for Belarusians as well.
ISW analysts warn that Russian officials may insist that Belarusians serve either in the Russian army or in Moscow-controlled units of the Union State.
The legal basis for this would be the unified legislation of the Union State itself, without any separate agreements with Minsk.
This means that Belarus could become a de facto annexed territory from which Russia will draw human resources for the war.
Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin is stepping up pressure on Alexander Lukashenko, demanding that he open a new front against Ukraine from Belarusian territory.
Meanwhile, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov claimed that it was Ukraine that was allegedly dragging Belarus into the war. As reported by RBC-Ukraine, Moscow is threatening Kyiv with a full range of measures if Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy does not back down from his demands regarding Belarus.
