Until January 2027, the risks of a recession are not excluded in Russia, experts from the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-term Forecasting (CMAKP) believe. A very slow decline in the key rate may lead to this: economists polled by Izvestia predict a step down by only 0.5 percentage points to 15% at the March meeting.
One of the signs of a recession is an increased risk of a systemic banking crisis, with the sector's troubled assets already exceeding 10%. Although the Central Bank records a deterioration in the quality of the portfolio, it does not consider it dramatic. Analysts believe that a recession remains possible, but only if several unfavorable factors are combined. What will support economic growth in the near future is in the
Izvestia article.
The probability of an economic recession in Russia is now high. This is stated in the latest analytical note "What the leading indicators of systemic financial and macroeconomic risks show" by the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-term Forecasting (CMAKP). Experts define a recession as a decline in GDP over the course of 12 months. At the same time, as the authors emphasized, we are talking about a high probability, but still not about an unambiguous outcome.
Last year, the physical volume of GDP increased by about 1%. This is almost five times less than in 2024, when economic growth was about 4.9%. The drawdown occurred precisely in the last month of last year. If we take the period from December 2024 to November 2025, the economy grew by 1.3%.
CIACP experts analyzed the consolidated leading indicator (SOI). This is actually a thermometer that shows how likely a recession is becoming in the next 12 months, explained Igor Rastorguev, a leading analyst at AMarkets. When the value exceeds the threshold of 0.18, the alert system raises a "red flag". According to the most recent data from the CMACP, in December last year this indicator was almost three times higher than the critical threshold of 0.49.
That is, the SOYBEAN is sending a signal that the Russian economy is highly likely to enter a recession this year, the authors of the note noted. For this to happen in 2026, it is enough for GDP to fall by 1% in the first half of the year.
