American intelligence agencies continue to assess that Iran has not made a final decision to develop a nuclear bomb, despite possessing a growing stockpile of enriched uranium that could enable rapid production if ordered.
The findings were reported by
The New York Times, citing U.S. intelligence officials and sources familiar with recent briefings.
The intelligence assessment, which has not changed since March, comes as tensions rise between Iran and both Israel and the United States. While Israeli airstrikes have targeted Iranian nuclear facilities in recent weeks, American officials believe Tehran has not yet taken steps to move from enrichment to weaponisation.
According to senior U.S. intelligence officials, Iran could shift its position if provoked, particularly in the event of a U.S. strike on its underground Fordo enrichment site or if Israel were to assassinate Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
At a White House intelligence briefing held on Thursday, CIA Director John Ratcliffe warned that Iran is “very close” to acquiring a nuclear weapon. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt later told reporters, “Let’s be very clear: Iran has all that it needs to achieve a nuclear weapon. All they need is a decision from the supreme leader to do that, and it would take a couple of weeks to complete the production of that weapon.”
Some of the latest assessments, according to The New York Times, align with intelligence shared by Israel’s Mossad agency, which believes Iran could develop a nuclear weapon within 15 days of a final decision. While some American officials consider that estimate credible, others believe Iran would need several months to a year to complete a functional weapon.
None of the new warnings, officials said, are based on newly obtained intelligence. Rather, they represent updated analyses of previously collected data. A senior intelligence official also noted that Ayatollah Khamenei’s 2003 religious edict banning the development of nuclear weapons remains in effect.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on June 19 that Iran has recently taken unprecedented steps toward weaponisation. “If not stopped, Iran could produce a nuclear weapon in a very short time. It could be a year. It could be within a few months, less than a year,” Netanyahu said. “This is a clear and present danger to Israel’s very survival.”
On June 10, U.S. Central Command head General Michael Kurilla testified before Congress that Iran’s stockpile and centrifuge capacity could allow it to produce weapons-grade uranium in one week, and potentially enough material for 10 nuclear weapons within three weeks, should it choose to accelerate its efforts.
Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard testified in March that Iran’s enriched uranium levels had reached a record high for a non-nuclear weapons state, a position U.S. officials confirm remains unchanged.
Currently, Iran’s stockpile is enriched to 60 per cent, short of the 90 per cent threshold needed for weapons-grade material. Enrichment involves increasing the concentration of the isotope U-235, which is capable of sustaining a nuclear chain reaction.
American officials acknowledge that producing a bomb also requires design, assembly, and potentially miniaturisation to fit a missile. While Iran is believed to have the expertise to complete such work, there is no evidence that it has taken those steps.
Officials added that Iran could pursue a simpler version of a nuclear weapon, such as a large bomb similar to the one used on Hiroshima, which would not require missile delivery.
Vice President JD Vance and other officials have confirmed that new assessments have been reviewed since March, but clarified that these are based on reanalysis of existing intelligence, not newly obtained evidence of intent.
